I just read this really great piece from Clay Shirky about newspapers and “the unthinkable”. It’s a little on the longer side, but if you haven’t read it yet, you definitely should.
His post got me thinking:
- I have to say that right now I don’t think newspapers will continue to exist. At least not in their current form. Whereas the transition from LPs, to 8-tracks, to cassette tapes, to CDs, to MP3s went somewhat smoothly, I don’t think newspapers will share the same ease. In the case of the audio mediums, the changes represented an evolution. Better quality, improved portability, etc.. However it didn’t really mark a seachange in the way we consumed audio media or the “purpose” that it served. But as Shirky mentions, the internet more-or-less breaks the model of most publishing. It’s not a matter of evolution, it’s a matter or revolution.
- I don’t read hard copies of newspapers and I don’t think anyone in my immediate circle of friends does either. I’m not suggesting that this is representative of Gen-Y, but I also don’t think it’s an uncommon scenario. By contrast, I know that the parents of many of my peers are still reading the papers. Is this a trend that’s going out with the changing of the guard? And why do our parents still read hard copies? Is it because it’s what they’ve always done?
- As a society, I don’t think we “owe” anything to newspapers. I can understand the government backing banks and carmakers because they’re a backbone of our economy, but I don’t think newspapers fit into that category. I’m not sure they deserve any special help. If the question of “Where will we get our news?!” is so relevant, then why are we having this discussion about newspapers dying anyway?
Steal This Idea!
That being said, I think there will be a short term business opportunity that will come about as a result of all this. As more and more newspapers shift their content to online-only, a market will be created to provide hard copies to people still interested. This might provide an opportunity to a small 3rd party printer that can efficiently make small runs of several different publications. They would be able to contract with the subscribers individually to get their hard copies, maybe even customized versions, after the papers go digital. However, this wouldn’t last forever, as eventually the demand for a paper copy will probably decline to the point of not being profitable anymore.
4 Responses and Counting...
Very interesting conclusion, Matt. Have you seen The Week? (http://www.theweek.com) It's a printed (and online) compendium of the week's news from sources around the globe–mostly print newspapers. It's my major source of news these days; the editors make it amazingly spare, which is my take on the future of newspapers: A skilled editor makes reading time well spent, and a professional journalist is worth reading. Take them away, and a newspaper is just a printed ad circular. Sort the mail over the trash can, I always say. We need editors and journalists; we don't need printed newspapers.
Papers will cease to exist at least in the mainstream very soon, then they will be followed by magazines and longer term even by books. It is simply a question of convenience – compared to the Kindle/Sony reader papers are bulky and you have to make a trip to buy them.
People like things to be convenient – therefore printed papers etc will die and soon. News however will proliferate for ever more with every interest and demographic catered for by an endless supply of blogs.
Simon, I disagree (with non-existence of books at least) I think Matt is right, newspapers will be a think of the past – they will be done online. Books however I doubt will disappear, some people just love to pick up a book and read it quietly on the couch in the afternoon.
I think there are some valied points. the guardian newspaper are taking a risky but could be profitable solution